Darren Rovell’s story over at CNBC is getting a lot of attention around the blogosphere because he calculated that Brady Quinn lost $17M in guaranteed money after sliding down to No. 22 instead of being taken at No. 3 by the Browns.
So here’s how I come up with the number. At the No. 3 pick, I project Cleveland would have signed Quinn to a six-year deal worth as much as $60 million, about $27 million of which would be guaranteed — that includes the quarterback premium. At No. 22, Quinn will sign a six-year deal closer to $30 million, with $10 million guaranteed. That’s a $17 million loss.
Here’s what’s wrong with this calculation: Cleveland was never going to take Brady Quinn with the No. 3 pick so saying that he lost that money is inaccurate. However, you could make a strong argument that the Miami Dolphins should have taken Quinn at No. 9. (Instead they took Ted Ginn Jr, who Cam Cameron said would be an awesome kick returner… wait, that’s supposed to placate angry Dolphins fans?) With the ninth pick, Quinn’s contract would have been more in line with Matt Leinart’s 6-year $51M with $14M guaranteed contract. Even if you bump it up to $15M in guaranteed money, Quinn only lost about $5M instead of the $17M that’s being tossed around.
As Jaws mentioned last night, what might have cost Quinn a lot of money was a coin toss in February that gave the Browns the third pick and the Bucs the fourth. It is conceivable that the Bucs would have taken Joe Thomas 3rd and then Cleveland would have taken Quinn with the 4th pick. Still, considering how crazy the draft was and how wrong everyone’s mock drafts were, there’s no guarantee that the Bucs would have taken Joe Thomas 3rd.
[CNBC]: The $17 Million Slide & Draft Day Notes