You know all those emails that promise you how they pick NFL games at an AMAZING! 70/75/80% of the time? They’re full of crap. If you can get 60% of your games right against the spread, you can make some serious dough. Well, this year, all you had to do was pick the favorites. Aside from the Colts’ season of perfection story line, this has been one boring year in the NFL if you believe the math geeks.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas set the lines so that the underdogs usually cover because the casual fan/office jackass/tourist usually bets the chalk. However, the favorites covered 63% of the time this year. This is only the 3rd time since 1998 that the favorites have covered more than 50% and the other two years, they barely got above .500. Of course, I’m sure this is the year all you gambling junkies decided the underdog was the way to go.
By the way, if you’ve ever wondered what “Betting the Chalk” means, I found a great explanation here.
Chalk – When a horse is the favorite — or has the most money bet on it — that horse is termed the “chalk.” Interestingly, this term comes from the pre-computer era of the bookie. When a bookie recorded bets on a blackboard, the odds would change over and over as more and more people bet on the favorite. The horse became known as the “chalk” because the horse’s name would disappear in chalk dust as the bookie constantly erased and lowered the horse’s odds.
