according to Baseball Prospectus, who correctly predicted the rapid rise of the Diamondbacks this year, the three biggest predictors of postseason success are: Equivalent Strikeouts Per Nine innings (EqK9), Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), and Closer Performance (as measured by the WXRL of the pitcher with the most save opportunities). that leads to:

• Red Sox over Angels (Boston is top three in the majors in all three categories)

• Yankees over Indians (neither team strikes out a ton of batters, but Cleveland's weak at closer)

• Phillies over Rockies (although given late season injuries to Phillies staff plus late season emergence of Corpas for Rockies and Rockies' top rated defense, i'd switch this around)

• Chicago over Arizona (Zambrano vs Webb twice will be the key to the series; Cubs are weak at closer and D'backs are weak defensively)