Comments on: The Full Count: First round picks http://blog.sportscolumn.com/2007/10/02/the-full-countfirst-round-picks/ All the sports news you need for the water cooler Thu, 14 Apr 2011 19:38:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: erik http://blog.sportscolumn.com/2007/10/02/the-full-countfirst-round-picks/comment-page-1/#comment-8 erik Wed, 03 Oct 2007 12:45:23 +0000 #comment-8 pitching, defense and closers -- according to Baseball Prospectus, who correctly predicted the rapid rise of the Diamondbacks this year, the three biggest predictors of postseason success are: Equivalent Strikeouts Per Nine innings (EqK9), Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), and Closer Performance (as measured by the WXRL of the pitcher with the most save opportunities). that leads to:<p> <ul> <li> Red Sox over Angels (Boston is top three in the majors in all three categories)<p> <li> Yankees over Indians (neither team strikes out a ton of batters, but Cleveland's weak at closer)<p> <li> Phillies over Rockies (although given late season injuries to Phillies staff plus late season emergence of Corpas for Rockies and Rockies' top rated defense, i'd switch this around)<p> <li> Chicago over Arizona (Zambrano vs Webb twice will be the key to the series; Cubs are weak at closer and D'backs are weak defensively) </ul> pitching, defense and closers — according to Baseball Prospectus, who correctly predicted the rapid rise of the Diamondbacks this year, the three biggest predictors of postseason success are: Equivalent Strikeouts Per Nine innings (EqK9), Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), and Closer Performance (as measured by the WXRL of the pitcher with the most save opportunities). that leads to:
  • Red Sox over Angels (Boston is top three in the majors in all three categories)
  • Yankees over Indians (neither team strikes out a ton of batters, but Cleveland’s weak at closer)
  • Phillies over Rockies (although given late season injuries to Phillies staff plus late season emergence of Corpas for Rockies and Rockies’ top rated defense, i’d switch this around)
  • Chicago over Arizona (Zambrano vs Webb twice will be the key to the series; Cubs are weak at closer and D’backs are weak defensively)

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